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September 26, 2008, 7:40 am
What to Look For in Tonight’s Debate By Katharine Q. Seelye, New York Times Tonight’s debate should offer a striking contrast in substance and style as Senator Barack Obama and Senator John McCain face off in their first formal debate of the general election. The encounter is scheduled to start at 9 p.m. Eastern time, at the University of Mississippi, and run until 10:30 p.m. Senator John McCain announced that he will attend the debate tonight, ending several days of confusion as to whether the event would take place. We’ll be be live blogging tonight. Video Here are some things to consider as those 90 minutes unfold: The first thing to watch for is whether Mr. McCain shows up. He said Wednesday that he wanted to delay the debate until Washington resolved the financial crisis that has gripped the nation. Those negotiations have collapsed, and Mr. McCain has given no new clues about his intentions. Mr. Obama, meanwhile, expects to go ahead with the debate as scheduled. The state of play reflects the personas of both men — Mr. McCain as impetuous, prone to turn on a dime, Mr. Obama as more methodical — and they may play out on stage tonight. But first, both will be contending with the sheer visual impact of their standing side by side for their first formal encounter while millions of viewers take their measure. Mr. McCain, 72, will try to avoid looking and sounding too old; Mr. Obama, 47, will try to avoid looking and sounding too young. Both will be adjusting their internal thermostats. Mr. Obama can be too cool, Mr. McCain too hot. Look for both to seek their inner Goldilocks. Mr. Obama will try to overcome the impression he left during his long series of the primary debates against Senator Hillary Clinton that he is hesitant and overly nuanced. Look for him to take an early opportunity to signal that he is forceful and yet entirely presidential. Mr. McCain, on the other hand, had a tendency during his primaries to squabble, sometimes harshly, with his opponents. Although he has “crossed the aisle” more frequently than Mr. Obama to work with the opposite party, he can also be a more fierce partisan, which is not something viewers like. Look for him to dial it back. Still, Mr. McCain may try to ratchet up the pre-debate head game that he began when he astounded the political world and said he wanted to delay the long-scheduled debate. A gambler by nature, and a more tactical debater than Mr. Obama, Mr. McCain took a high-stakes risk in trying to seize control of the debate two days ahead of time and throw Mr. Obama off-balance. It will be interesting to see how that dynamic plays out tonight and how far Mr. McCain takes that kind of brinksmanship. The assigned topic for tonight is foreign policy. But it seems virtually impossible to conduct this debate without discussing the economic meltdown, which is sending ripples of panic across the country. If the moderator, Jim Lehrer of P.B.S., doesn’t want to lose control of the evening, he will probably bring up the economy immediately; if he doesn’t, watch to see which candidate thinks he has the upper hand and brings it up first. Mr. Obama will surely try to link Mr. McCain early and often to President Bush, for what he sees as the mismanagement of both the economy and the war in Iraq. Expect him in short order to revive Mr. McCain’s recent statement that the fundamentals of the economy are sound. At the same time, Mr. McCain will play to his strength, which is that voters see him as a more plausible commander-in-chief. He will try to transfer that leadership quality to his dramatic self-portrayal as a rescuer of the economy, although there is little evidence that he has been instrumental in the negotiations so far. On Iraq, he will almost certainly try to corner Mr. Obama into admitting that the surge in troops — which Mr. McCain has championed — was successful. Mr. Obama had been reluctant to do so, but he said earlier this month that the surge had succeeded “beyond our wildest dreams.” That has paved the way for him to be able to say tonight that he has already acknowledged the benefits of the surge and to try to shift the focus to the fact that Iraq is still not self-sufficient. Mr. McCain, of course, casts Mr. Obama as raising the white flag of surrender and says he is ill-equipped to lead the country in a time of peril. This discussion is likely lead to one of the central stalemates between the two candidates. Watch to see if Mr. Lehrer can move these candidates beyond their well-trod differences. Not everyone is expecting sparks tonight. Ross Baker, a political scientist at Rutgers, advises viewers not to expect the proverbial knock-out blow. Despite some famous examples from history, truly decisive moments in debates are few and far between. “These candidates are very well prepped,” he says. “They are two self-possessed people, so the idea that one of them will blurt out some awful indiscretion or appear to be gobsmacked by the other is really unlikely.” What is more probable, he says, is that viewers will be guided by subtle cues. “They’ll be watching the body language, the presentation, the tone of voice, the gestures,” he says. “They’ll be watching for McCain to borrow some of Obama’s academic approach and for Obama to find a little more of McCain’s fire.” |
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